By Professor Derek H. Aldcroft, Peter Fearon
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Additional info for British Economic Fluctuations, 1790–1939
Pp. 94, 101. R. Goodwin, 'Innovations and the Irregularity of Economic Cycles', Review ofEconomic Statistics, XXVIII (1946) 100. 3 On this point see S. Kuznets, 'Schumpeter's Business Cycles', American Economic Review, xxx (1940) 266-7. 1 Often, however, it was not very clear what were the important innovations, ifany, and in some cases it was necessary to scrape the bottom of the barrel. The lastJuglar of the second Kondratieff (18gos) was one 'of odds and ends that mainly summed up and completed'.
But it is difficult to believe that all these changes are directly relevant to business cycle phasing. Changes in business organisation or the opening-up of new markets or raw materials supplies may well be relevant to long-term develop1 Bober, Economics ofCycles and Growth, p. 161, appears to regard innovation in the Schumpeterian sense as being an external force necessary for the continued stimulation of the cycle and quotes Frisch's pendulum analogy. But this only relaxes slightly the necessity to find recurrent innovatory impulses.
There are several ways of assessing the Impact of investment and exports on income fluctuations. In particular, we wish to know the severity of cycles in these variables and relate it to that in national income. Secondly, the turning-points in exports and investment may be compared with those in income to see how closely they synchronise. And thirdly, it is useful to determine the degree of conformity between movements in income and other variables through the cycle as a whole. The following exercises provide some degree of quantification of these points.